Drake @ UIC 1/1


Drake @ UIC 1/1

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DUBulldog
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2 PM game in Chicago against an improved UIC team.  UIC is coming off a road win at Illinois State, but ISU wasn't at full strength,

KemPom has it as a 72% chance of victory for Drake, predicted score 70-64.

UIC         117
Drake        6
ColonialBulldog
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I loved McCollum's quote about needing to "prove" things this year and that the Bulldogs have absolutely proven they are worth the price of admission. If there's maybe one thing to nitpick as unproven, it would be "can this team play well on the road?" I know K-State is credited as a road game, but our only true game in another team's gym was Valpo. I'd argue that was the worst game of the season for us so far. We've got a target on our backs now and we're going to get everyone's best shot in their gym. 


BRFDawg
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ColonialBulldog - 12/31/2024
I loved McCollum's quote about needing to "prove" things this year and that the Bulldogs have absolutely proven they are worth the price of admission. If there's maybe one thing to nitpick as unproven, it would be "can this team play well on the road?" I know K-State is credited as a road game, but our only true game in another team's gym was Valpo. I'd argue that was the worst game of the season for us so far. We've got a target on our backs now and we're going to get everyone's best shot in their gym. 


I agree with the last point and would say that's exactly what you need and want come March. But make no mistake we're absolutely going to take some huge punches in this league, up or down it's still a meat grinder.
drewfustin
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Anyone going to this game? I’m in section 113 with the fam.
wcomito0812
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KenPom Scouting Report for UIC
Some observations:
  • UIC has played well there last 4 games, there most impressive being a 11 pt victory at Seattle on the road (145 in KP), then followed by a win on the road against an Illinois St team that was missing their two best players for most of the game. 
  • I think we will dominate the pace of the game yet again. UIC prefers a faster style of play, albeit nothing like Belmont. However, this is a holiday game still over break for everyone, and I expect attendance to be light, so it may be kind of a "trance" game if you will, at least on the UIC side. 
  • The key is going to be turnovers in this battle, as UIC is committing TO's on 20% of possessions (326 in KP) and on defense only getting TO's on 15% of possessions (304 in KP). Conversely, Drake is committing TO's on 20% of possessions (325 in KP) but the defense is getting TO's on 22.6% of possessions (15 in KP). I would imagine that if you take in consideration the shot clock violations, which at this point I consider a "missed shot" versus a TO based on how BMC runs his offense, we would be closer to that 18.5%-19% TO on offense, still slightly above average. 
  • UIC is allowing 36.4% defensively on 3pt shots (294 in KenPom). If they try to play deny ball on MM like other teams have, I think Abreu will get a lot of opportunities. Either way, I'd look for us to have some solid clean looks behind the arc. 
  • This is just an aside as a whole when it comes to game planning in conference, but Stirtz, MM, and Abreu are 1,3, & 28 nationally when it comes to percentage of minutes played per game. Our tempo on offense being 363 out of 364 and getting our defense set and allowing these shot clock violations is not only an effort to have a high effective field goal percentage, but we simply won't be able to keep up when we have 2-3 games per week in conference if we play at a high speed. Playing our tempo of game is critical. 
To sum it up, I think we will largely dominate this game despite UIC's recent performances. My personal guess is a ~15 point win. I'd almost go as far to say that we will win almost every single first game of conference play until someone plays us twice, just because of how difficult it is to figure out BMC's game plan, especially on defense. I think we are very good at making adjustments in game when it comes to defensive lapses. 

Hope everyone is having Happy Holidays! As always, I'd love to hear any input!
   

MKE2KC DAWG
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wcomito0812 - 12/31/2024


KenPom Scouting Report for UIC
Some observations:
  • UIC has played well there last 4 games, there most impressive being a 11 pt victory at Seattle on the road (145 in KP), then followed by a win on the road against an Illinois St team that was missing their two best players for most of the game. 
  • I think we will dominate the pace of the game yet again. UIC prefers a faster style of play, albeit nothing like Belmont. However, this is a holiday game still over break for everyone, and I expect attendance to be light, so it may be kind of a "trance" game if you will, at least on the UIC side. 
  • The key is going to be turnovers in this battle, as UIC is committing TO's on 20% of possessions (326 in KP) and on defense only getting TO's on 15% of possessions (304 in KP). Conversely, Drake is committing TO's on 20% of possessions (325 in KP) but the defense is getting TO's on 22.6% of possessions (15 in KP). I would imagine that if you take in consideration the shot clock violations, which at this point I consider a "missed shot" versus a TO based on how BMC runs his offense, we would be closer to that 18.5%-19% TO on offense, still slightly above average. 
  • UIC is allowing 36.4% defensively on 3pt shots (294 in KenPom). If they try to play deny ball on MM like other teams have, I think Abreu will get a lot of opportunities. Either way, I'd look for us to have some solid clean looks behind the arc. 
  • This is just an aside as a whole when it comes to game planning in conference, but Stirtz, MM, and Abreu are 1,3, & 28 nationally when it comes to percentage of minutes played per game. Our tempo on offense being 363 out of 364 and getting our defense set and allowing these shot clock violations is not only an effort to have a high effective field goal percentage, but we simply won't be able to keep up when we have 2-3 games per week in conference if we play at a high speed. Playing our tempo of game is critical. 
To sum it up, I think we will largely dominate this game despite UIC's recent performances. My personal guess is a ~15 point win. I'd almost go as far to say that we will win almost every single first game of conference play until someone plays us twice, just because of how difficult it is to figure out BMC's game plan, especially on defense. I think we are very good at making adjustments in game when it comes to defensive lapses. 

Hope everyone is having Happy Holidays! As always, I'd love to hear any input!
   

The fact that we have the same TO ratios despite tempos being 108th in the country vs 363rd is mouth watering stuff assuming Drake sets the pace of play. 



coachaj
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Great scouting report from wcomito! This could be a trap game for Drake, but on paper we should win it by 10 or more. Outside of the Yale game (which drew a little over 3000 fans) UIC averages well under 1000 in attendance this year. Looks like they had around 700 for the UNI game on 12/4/24, for example. With the holiday and the students gone, that number may be 500 or less. If the Dogs can muster even a few hundred fans of their own this could turn into essentially a neutral court game. Anyone have an idea what to expect in terms of Drake attendance?
DUBulldog
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coachaj - 1/1/2025
Great scouting report from wcomito! This could be a trap game for Drake, but on paper we should win it by 10 or more. Outside of the Yale game (which drew a little over 3000 fans) UIC averages well under 1000 in attendance this year. Looks like they had around 700 for the UNI game on 12/4/24, for example. With the holiday and the students gone, that number may be 500 or less. If the Dogs can muster even a few hundred fans of their own this could turn into essentially a neutral court game. Anyone have an idea what to expect in terms of Drake attendance?

I feel like Enright drew a lot of the fans in attendance last year but hopefully Chicagoland alumni show up

drewfustin
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I know of at least 5 in attendance.
mnbulldog
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Nate and Mitch are both from the area as well. Hopefully we get a decent crowd.
ChiTown Bulldog
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drewfustin - 1/1/2025
I know of at least 5 in attendance.




We’ll be in 113 and I know handful of others
DUBulldog
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Drake favored by 6.5
drewfustin
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Many, many more Drake fans than UIC fans here. Except for the fact that the stadium is empty, this is basically a home game.
drewfustin
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Row J, house left for us.
Drakey
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Worst passing I’ve seen this season for the Dogs

Drakey
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I think it’s the worst first half of defense this season. Will be interesting to see how coach gets them going in the second half. UIC getting some lucky breaks. 
skydog0784
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I'm following along on the radio but it sounds like the Dogs are rusty so far.  I trust a Ben M. inspired half-time speech and we'll come out sharper.
DUBulldog
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Very ugly first half, but 'dogs still up by 1.

Hoping for a little more offensive flow in second half.

Drake shooting a higher percentage than the Flames and outrebounding them, but 8 turnovers have hurt the Bulldogs.
Drakey
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We’ve got 9 or 10 turnovers at half. Mostly unforced. Several passes not within ten feet of anybody. Strange.

Drakey
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