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If you're not familiar with Pomeroy or tempo-free statistics, read this, this, and this.
Pace-wise, DU is about three possessions/game below the national average. They've slightly closer to the average if you just consider the Valley schools.
We probably don't need stats to tell us that the offense is in good shape but not the defense. Offense is ranked #105 of 347 in adjusted points per possession. Defense ranks #339 (!).
Offense is successful because of good shooting (#53.3) and excellent ball responsibility (#24). In fact, the difference between this team and 2007-08 offensively (which ranked #5) is almost entirely explained by the offensive rebounding. The 2008 team was #39 in OR; the 2010 team is #337.
Not assigning blame, but the rebounding has completely fallen off under Phelps. Since 2004, DU ranked:
2004: #182 offensive/#257 defensive
2005: #51/#57
2006: #11/#99
2007: #31/#107
2008: #39/#188
2009: #283/#65
2010: #337/#256
Join in the analysis, figure we can discuss this every few games. |
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Supreme Being
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| It's a little early for adjusted stats. By the time conference play starts they should be pretty accurate, but right now teams haven't played enough games to fill out the stats. I think Pomeroy factors last year's stats into a team's adjusted stats until a team plays ten games. Regardless of how you look at it, though, Drake's defensive and rebounding numbers are pretty bad. Even more disturbing, Drake's defense and rebounding is last in the MVC by a wide margin. It's like Phelps has focused on offense since he arrive, and let the defense and rebounding wither away. Drake's offense is good enough to carry them to a few MVC wins this year, especially if they catch fire shooting the ball, but they'll have no consistency with such a poor defense.
I'm surprised Drake's tempo is so slow. Apparently when both teams score on most of their possessions, the game seems to move a lot faster than it really does.
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Supreme Being
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| It is going to be nearly impossible to win with rebounding and defensive numbers like those. The rebounding differences are ridculous and are primarily the result of coaching. Davis teams at Iowa and Drake almost always won the battle of the boards, and it was not because of size. It was technique and philosophy. You can have success even with little talent if you rebound and play defense. You can shoot great and lose a lot of games with weak defense and rebounding.
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| Drakey (12/12/2009)
It is going to be nearly impossible to win with rebounding and defensive numbers like those. The rebounding differences are ridculous and are primarily the result of coaching. Davis teams at Iowa and Drake almost always won the battle of the boards, and it was not because of size. It was technique and philosophy. You can have success even with little talent if you rebound and play defense. You can shoot great and loae a lot of games with weak defense and rebounding.
Absolutely. However, Drake fixed their gaping defensive holes in the middle (to a certain extent) and they have made some progress on the boards. But there's just a lack of toughness and vigor that needs to be instilled in the new guys. Also, as you say, the technique just isn't there. I really feel like this could be a very good team if they could fix their rebounding problem.
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The journey of a winning season begins with a single offensive rebound. |
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| | just a note...if you use the adjusted numbers (which, as has been mentioned, are still somewhat sketchy) Drake fell to last in the nation defensively tonight. Giving up 46.2% 3-point shooting will do that to you... |
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| amcsepboe (12/13/2009)
just a note...if you use the adjusted numbers (which, as has been mentioned, are still somewhat sketchy) Drake fell to last in the nation defensively tonight. Giving up 46.2% 3-point shooting will do that to you...
The new ranking isn't surprising. BU scored 76 against Drake, their previous high score was 66. They scored 76 points in 62 possessions against Drake; in their previous game against Marshall they scored 55 points in 63 possessions. Drake doesn't force turnovers, they give up too many offensive rebounds, and their half-court defense is horrible. All of that adds up to awful points per possession numbers.
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| Mecha_Bulldog (12/13/2009)
[quote]amcsepboe (12/13/2009)
just a note...if you use the adjusted numbers (which, as has been mentioned, are still somewhat sketchy) Drake fell to last in the nation defensively tonight. Giving up 46.2% 3-point shooting will do that to you...
The new ranking isn't surprising. BU scored 76 against Drake, their previous high score was 66. They scored 76 points in 62 possessions against Drake; in their previous game against Marshall they scored 55 points in 63 possessions. Drake doesn't force turnovers, they give up too many offensive rebounds, and their half-court defense is horrible. All of that adds up to awful points per possession numbers.[/quote]
When you consider that we're the worst defensive team in the country (wow!) and we're still .500, that's pretty impressive. I think that speaks to the fact that we could be poised to be very good if we could just improve a little bit on defense. Its so frustrating to be close to being a good team, but can't seem to find the right defensive mix.
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The journey of a winning season begins with a single offensive rebound. |
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| | The Dogs have the thinnest margin of error even against mediocre to bad teams. We have to shoot the ball very well, especially 3's, in order to have much of a chance to win. You have to stop the other team first in order to win consistently and the zone defense we play is just not aggressive enough to do that. The system we run and the techniques I have seen don't lead to good rebounding either. I wish our coach would at least try to install a man defense as an option when we run into opponents who shread our zone. |
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| Either there is no emphasis on defense in practice, or the coaching staff doesn't understand defense. There is no excuse for having the worst defense in the country. Those defensive numbers are against some really terrible teams. Four of the teams Drake has played have a combined four D1 victories between them. How much worse would these numbers be if we had played good teams?
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| Drakey (12/13/2009)
Either there is no emphasis on defense in practice, or the coaching staff doesn't understand defense. There is no excuse for having the worst defense in the country. Those defensive numbers are against some really terrible teams. Four of the teams Drake has played have a combined four D1 victories between them. How much worse would these numbers be if we had played good teams?
Drakey haven't you heard we're young?
1-20-13--The end of an error.
FREEDOM'S JUST ANOTHER WORD FOR NOTHING LEFT TO LOSE. HERE'S TO THE END OF THIS SEASON. |
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| Dawg_tired (12/13/2009)
[quote]Drakey (12/13/2009)
Either there is no emphasis on defense in practice, or the coaching staff doesn't understand defense. There is no excuse for having the worst defense in the country. Those defensive numbers are against some really terrible teams. Four of the teams Drake has played have a combined four D1 victories between them. How much worse would these numbers be if we had played good teams?
Drakey haven't you heard we're young?[/quote]
I didn't realize we were young. I retract the statement.
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| Well, speaking of statistics, after 10 games, basically 1/3 of the season, we are averaging 46% from the floor, we are scoring 67 ppg and relinquishing 59.7 ppg. If someone told me that, at the beginning of the season, I would have guessed that we would probably be at 8-2, or possibly even 9-1, considering the competition, regardless of our youth.
We have had 5 different guys lead the team in scoring, only three of which were seniors (AT once and JY twice, although JY did miss one game). We had a freshman lead in three games ( Simons once and Van Deest twice). Wedel has lead the scoring four times. Highest leading scorer was Simons with 24. Lowest leading scorer in a game was Wedel, with 14. We reached a high mark of 96 and a low of 59 in a game.
Yep, we've got to work on our "D".
REBOUNDING 101 (DEFENSE):
1) STAY BETWEEN YOUR MAN AND THE BASKET.
2) BLOCK OUT.
3) REPEAT
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| | 72, You are right on. Our margin of error is incredibly small. This zone defense forces absolutely no turnovers, we let the other team totally dictate tempo when they are on offense & we can't rebound. I still say we can't rebound because of the zone. We were a horrible reounding team last year. I'm not sure Phelps can coach man to man, so I don't think we will ever switch to man. However, we have some pretty good athletes. Templeton, Simons, JY, these guys I think could all be pretty good defenders in a man defense. It is not a coincidence that most of the teams we play have career nights shooting the ball. I guess my question of this defense is what are we really trying to do? We let teams shoot 3's all day, we can't block out so we get pounded on the glass, & yet we continue to play the sme way. Coaching? |
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| dog67 (12/13/2009)
Well, speaking of statistics, after 10 games, basically 1/3 of the season, we are averaging 46% from the floor, we are scoring 67 ppg and relinquishing 59.7 ppg. If someone told me that, at the beginning of the season, I would have guessed that we would probably be at 8-2, or possibly even 9-1, considering the competition, regardless of our youth.
Are you sure about those number D67? I show them scoring 70.7 ppg and giving up 71 ppg.
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| zman2 (12/13/2009)
72, You are right on. Our margin of error is incredibly small. This zone defense forces absolutely no turnovers, we let the other team totally dictate tempo when they are on offense & we can't rebound. I still say we can't rebound because of the zone. We were a horrible reounding team last year. I'm not sure Phelps can coach man to man, so I don't think we will ever switch to man. However, we have some pretty good athletes. Templeton, Simons, JY, these guys I think could all be pretty good defenders in a man defense. It is not a coincidence that most of the teams we play have career nights shooting the ball. I guess my question of this defense is what are we really trying to do? We let teams shoot 3's all day, we can't block out so we get pounded on the glass, & yet we continue to play the sme way. Coaching?
I've said it before and I'll keep on saying it. There is very little difference between a helping m2m and a match-up zone. The problems this team has in the zone will not go away with a man. the first time down the floor the defense changes the opponent might hesitate to recognize the change, but I doubt it. Our 3s and 4s will get shredded in a man. At is our best defender and he struggled to cover a quick 3 on the wing. I hate the thought of what the others will look like. We don't have a 2 with the size to body other big 2s. This is not a slam, but JY is just not tall enough to defend the likes of Os and Ps. He will need help, as will the 3s and 4s, (and the 5s and 1s). There will be switching (which means players have to rotate off the ball), 5s will end up guarding 1s on the perimeter and 2s will be stuck in the post. You think the rebounding is a problem now? Try watching At and SVD crash the boards from the top of the key.
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| | Gordon, I'm not sure I totally agree, but you have seen the dogs much more than I have. I have a question for you. Do you think that Phelp's zone defense actually can work here? I am being serious when I ask this. You seem to think that w/the current players we have that this is our only option. As I stated earlier, our zone defense basically does nothing. The only thing keeping us in games this year is when we basically shoot lights out on offense. If we don't, we lose. Plain & simple. You cannot win when you are last in the conference in rebounding & basically every other defensive category. All I am saying is we have seen 11/2 years of this zone & not only are things getting worse, they are getting much worse. I value your opinions on basketball, so I would like to know what defense you think is best for this team. |
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| I like this site but caution that I don't believe the numbers .... YET anyway. The men could just as easily be 9-1 as 5-5 right now. Still too early for a clear picture but I think once we get 3 or 4 conference games under our belt, these bean counter concoctions start to make sense. Can the team muster up the fight and toughness to pick it up a tad? Can the staff make a few better in games decisions? I know they can, and I believe that will happen. Once you find Drake in the list, click on "Drake" and it will break it all down. Not for one honk'n second do I think the men will lose to Iowa by 10 points. And I find it more doubtful they lose to SDS by 17 at the Knapp. These next 2 games will fall in the win column and all those numbers will change dramatically. KILL, MAIM, DESTROY !!! 
RPIForecastLinakge
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| Mc Bulldog (12/14/2009)
And I find it more doubtful they lose to SDS by 17 at the Knapp.
The Aztecs just beat Arizona by 17... Let's hope the Dogs flip the outcome!
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| 4Bulldogs (12/14/2009)
Mc Bulldog (12/14/2009)
And I find it more doubtful they lose to SDS by 17 at the Knapp.The Aztecs just beat Arizona by 17... Let's hope the Dogs flip the outcome!
I have a feeling SDSU will beat Drake by a lot more than 17. Let's see what Drake does in Iowa City first.
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| Mecha_Bulldog (12/14/2009)
4Bulldogs (12/14/2009)
[quote]Mc Bulldog (12/14/2009)
And I find it more doubtful they lose to SDS by 17 at the Knapp.The Aztecs just beat Arizona by 17... Let's hope the Dogs flip the outcome!
I have a feeling SDSU will beat Drake by a lot more than 17. Let's see what Drake does in Iowa City first.[/quote]
RPI-wise, Drake is the worst team that SDSU will face all year. That's sad...
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The journey of a winning season begins with a single offensive rebound. |
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